No Pool this Year

For those of you looking to join our pool again this year, I am sorry to say that we will not be running our traditional bracket contest this year.  Instead, various circumstances have forced us to retire from the world of NCAA postseason action.

We hope that you've enjoyed our pool for the past 20 (or so) seasons.  There are many other NCAA contests out there and we hope that you find another pool that you enjoy.

Happy Bracketology!

2015 Recap: Marianne Mops up!

The Duke Blue Devils defeated the Wisconsin Badgers in last night's national championship game and, in so doing, Marianne Filary's "Mfilary2" bracket vaulted to the top of our standings.  Marianne correctly predicted the exact result of last night's game when she filled out her bracket three weeks ago.

Marianne's bracket scored 94 points and proved to be better than the 1,014 other brackets that entered our pool. Congratulations, Marianne!  For her efforts, she claims our top prize of $1,000.

Following close behind, the bracket of Chris Veley scored 93 points and claimed our pool's 2nd place prize of $750.  Similar to Marianne, Chris had also predicted that Duke would defeat Wisconsin in the final game.

Here is a quick summary of the 12 brackets that won money in this year's pool.  As detailed in our rules, any ties were broken based on most points scored in the latest round.  We did have a tie for 11th place, where the brackets of Dave Podlesnik and Sammy Durand scored the exact same number of points in each round.  As a result, those two brackets will split the 11th and 12th place money.

  1.  Mfilary 2 - 94 pts ($1,000)

  2.  Chris Veley - 93 pts ($750)

  3.  Davis Narey - 92 pts ($650)

  4.  AMW Alan 5 - 91 pts ($500)

  5.  Owen Shenkenberg - 91 pts ($450)

  6.  Dana Boettcher - 90 pts ($400)

  7.  Tom Powers 2 - 90 pts ($350)

  8.  Nic Parcels - 89 pts ($300)

  9.  Sage Guehlstorf - 89 pts ($250)

10.  Nick Kowalik - 89 pts ($180)

11.  Dave Podlesnik - 88 pts ($122.50)

11.  Sammy Durand - 88 pts ($122.50)

All told, exactly 59 of our 1,015 brackets (5.8%) correctly predicted that Duke would cut down the nets in Indianapolis this year.  Conversely, 299 of our brackets would have been correct if Wisconsin had won the final game.

Congratulations to all our winners.  We will coordinate payment with everyone this week.

See ya next year!

Good Times in Wisconsin!

Adjusted Scenarios:

I justed noticed that the sorting for the "If Wisconsin beats Michigan State" and "If Michigan State beats Wisconsin" scenarios were screwed up.  Everyone's points were correct, but the standings were not sorted properly. I've just fixed it.

So, if you've predicted that Wisconsin will win this year's national championship, you may want to re-check the "If Wisconsin beats Michigan State" scenario to see where you stand.

Sorry for any confusion!

The Eight Scenarios:

There are eight different scenarios that can play out next weekend.  If you click on the appropriate box, you'll be shown the final standings under that particular scenario.  

As you'll see as you scroll thru the potential results, the pool is going to be won by Davis Narey, Sage Guehlstorf, Mfilary 2, Kelly Kearney #1, or Jesse Maurer #2.  However, there are dozens of other brackets that can finish in the money if things work out properly.  Good luck to everyone!

Remember . . . in the event of a tie, the most points scored in the latest round serves as the tiebreaker.

Sunday Recap:

Michigan State and Duke claimed victories this afternoon and will join Wisconsin and Kentucky at this year's Final Four in Indianapolis next weekend.  Michigan State's victory was particularly tenuous, as they needed OT to outlast Rick Pitino and his Louisville Cardinals.

As we approach the final weekend of the tournament, the bracket of Davis Narey finds himself at the top of our pool with 82 points.  Davis correctly predicted 3 of the Final Four teams (he missed Michigan State).  Davis will win our pool if Wisconsin defeats Duke in the championship game next Monday night.

We've got two new brackets that jumped to the top of our leaderboard:  Jesse Maurer #2 and Owen Schenkenberg.  They're both tied for 2nd place with 81 points and both of these brackets can brag that they nailed all of this year's Final Four teams.  Nice work, guys!  Jesse, in particular, will win the pool if Kentucky defeats Duke in the championship game.  

All told, we had 29 brackets that correctly predicted all of the Final Four teams.  That may be a new record!  Our average bracket nailed 2 of the Final Four teams.  Here's a quick summary of the number of brackets in our pool that correctly predicted that each of these teams would make the Final Four:

With so many great brackets in our pool, there are a lot scenarios that can play out next weekend and a lot of brackets that have a shot at winning serious money in this pool.  Sometime tomorrow night, I will post links that show all 8 scenarios that might play out next weekend so that everyone can see exactly where they stand.

In the interim, good luck to everyone chasing the big bucks!

Saturday Recap:

Wisconsin and Kentucky punched their tickets to Indianapolis with victories over Arizona and Notre Dame, respectively, Saturday night and set up a Final Four rematch from last year.

The Badgers and Wildcats were both #1 seeds, so many of our brackets had a good night.  For those of us that live in Wisconsin, next Saturday evening can't come fast enough.

All told, over half of our brackets (546, to be exact) scored a perfect 8 points Saturday night.  Our average bracket scored 5.9 points.

As we prepare for Sunday's games, the brackets of Davis Narey and Ashley Jordan sit atop our pool with 78 points.

Not surprisingly, both of these brackets scored 8 points on Saturday.

Depending on the outcomes of Sunday's games, we've still got 69 brackets with a shot at a perfect Final Four.

Final 4 Predictions:

As this evening's games get ready to tip off, I thought I'd provide this number of the day:

112 - This is the number of brackets in our pool that still have a shot at getting all of their Final Four teams correct.

Friday Night Recap:

Michigan State, Gonzaga, Louisville, and Duke joined the Elite 8 party tonight.  In the process, the top of our pool's leaderboard changed as Davis Narey and Maria Dorn joined Ashley Jordan in first place.  Those three brackets have 70 points, which is one point more than Donna Thiel's 69 points.

Only 19 brackets in our pool scored a perfect 12 points Friday night.  Even more impressive, only 3 brackets in our entire pool (Davis Narey, Kelly Lacy, and Ryan Lown #1) nailed all of their Elite 8 teams.  If you own one of those brackets, congratulations!

Our pool's average bracket correctly predicted 5 of the Elite 8 teams.  Here's a quick summary of the number of brackets that predicted each of these teams would survive this long.  Not surprisingly, Kentucky is at the top of the list:

For those of us that live in Wisconsin, Saturday's action will be highlighted by the rematch of last year's OT Elite 8 thriller between the Badgers and Arizona.  Go Badgers!

For what it's worth, ESPN BPI gives the Badgers a 54% chance of advancing to the Final 4.  On the other hand, most Las Vegas casinos have installed Arizona as a 1-point favorite.

Thursday Night Recap:

It was a night of favorites, as the four higher seeded teams (Kentucky, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Arizona) all claimed victories and advanced to this year's Elite 8.  Kentucky, in particular, looked particularly impressive as they throttled West Virginia by 38 points.

With all the higher seeded teams claiming victory, it was a good night for a majority of our brackets.  In fact, exactly 390 of our entries (38.4%) got all four games correct this evening and scored a perfect 12 points.  Our pool's average bracket scored 9.4 points tonight.

The bracket of Ashley Jordan remains at the top of our leaderboard with 64 points.  Following close behind, the brackets of Donna Thiel and Sage Guehlstorf sit with 63 points.  All three of these brackets scored 12 points Thursday night.

With a bunch of lower-seeded teams scheduled to play Friday night, we may see a shake-up at the top of the standings when the rest of the Elite 8 are determined.  As it stands, there are only 36 brackets in our entire pool that can score 12 points Friday night, and none of those brackets are owned by our current top three placeholders.

For what it's worth, there are only 5 brackets in our pool that have the opportunity to still nail all of the Elite 8 teams.  The best of those brackets belongs to Davis Narey, who is currently tied for 32nd place with 58 points.

Good luck to everyone chasing the dream of a $1,000 payout!

Perfection Possibilities:

As the Sweet 16 games draw closer, I thought this would be a good time to report two quick numbers:

9 - This is the number of brackets in our pool that have a shot at correctly predicting all of the Elite 8 teams.  If you own one of these brackets, give yourself a pat on the back.  You are part of an exclusive group of 0.8% of our pool.

157 - This is the number of brackets in our pool that still have all of the Final Four teams alive.  This represents approximately 15.5% of our pool.

Good luck to everyone chasing the dream of a Perfect Elite Eight or a Perfect Final Four!

Barack Obama Update:

As most of you know, President Obama has traditionally filled out a bracket before the NCAA Tournament begins.  This year, he picked Kentucky (like most people) to cut down the nets in Indianapolis in a couple weeks.

At the same time, Mr. Obama's Final Four predictions also included Arizona, Villanova, and Duke.  His full bracket is shown below.

As it stands, Mr. Obama would have 40 points if he had joined this pool - which is a point below our average bracket.  He'd be sitting in 610th place.

If you're interested in tracking the President's bracket throughout the tournament, you simply need to watch the progress of the bracket of Carla Beck #1 in our own pool.  As has become tradition, Carla has "borrowed" our President's selections and submitted a bracket with those same picks.

Average Scores:

As mentioned in a previous post, our average bracket has scored 41.2 points thru the opening weekend of this year's tournament.  How does that compare to prior years?

I have stats going back to 2001.  In that year, our average score at this point of the tournament was 39.0 points.  Our highest average score occurred in 2009, when we had a cumulative average of 48.2 points.

Over the past 15 years, our average bracket's score has been 41.3 points after the opening weekend.  Apparently, 2014 and 2015 have been the definitions of an average year, since we've been within 0.1 point of that average each of the last two years.

Here is a quick rundown of our pool's average score after the opening weekend of action:

Sweet 16 Recap:

Of the teams to make this year's Sweet 16, it's probably not surprising to learn that Kentucky was our pool's most popular pick to make it this far.  Of the 1,015 brackets in our pool, exactly 1,006 of them (99.1%) had predicted that the Wildcats would win both games this past weekend.

On the other end of the spectrum, the UCLA Bruins are our pool's biggest surprise.  Only 36 of our brackets (3.5%) correctly predicted that they would make the Sweet 16.

Here is a quick recap of the number of brackets in our pool that correctly predicted that each of these teams would make the Sweet 16 this year:

Day #4 Recap: Sweet 16 Set!

The opening weekend of the 2015 NCAA Tournament has come to a close and the Sweet 16 is set.  For those of us that live in Wisconsin, we're happy to see that the final 16 teams includes our home-state Badgers, who grinded out a hard-fought victory over Oregon.  It was the 2nd straight year that Wisconsin knocked off Oregon in the round of 32.

Wisconsin's next game is against North Carolina on Thursday.  Tip is scheduled for 6:47pm CST.

Day #4's biggest surprises included #7 Michigan State's win over #2 Virginia.  Only 32% of the brackets in our pool predicted this win for the Spartans.  Meanwhile, 34% of our brackets thought that Tony Bennett's Cavaliers would reach this year's Final Four.  That won't be happening.

In addition to Michigan State's win, #7 Wichita State also pulled of a Day #4 upset by beating #2 Kansas.  The Jayhawks may have been avoiding the Shockers since the last time they played (in 1993), but the bracket-makers would have nothing of it.  They set up these two teams for a 2nd round match, and Wichita State showed that they don't play 2nd fiddle to the "big boys" in the state of Kansas.  Only 30% of our brackets thought Wichita State would reach the Sweet 16.

As the opening weekend comes to a close, the bracket of Ashley Jordan sits alone at the top of our standings with 52 points.  Ashley was able to correctly predict 12 of the Sweet 16 teams.

Following close behind are the brackets of "Truck Driver Mike", Donna Thiel, and Sage Guehlstorf. Each of those brackets sits on 51 points right now.  "Truck Driver Mike's" bracket is 1 of only 3 brackets in our pool that correctly predicted 13 of the Sweet 16 teams.

For what it's worth, our pool's average bracket has scored 41.2 points and correctly predicted 9 of the Sweet 16 teams.

I will post various stats about our pool during the week.  So, feel free to check back to this site during the next few days as we patiently await the next round of games that begin Thursday night.

Finally, this serves as a gentle reminder for anyone that hasn't paid their bracket fees yet.  Please pay ASAP!!! We've got some debt collectors ready to roll, but we'd rather not use them.